After a record 13-1-1 start to the season the Montréal Canadiens looked unstoppable, with balanced scoring coming from all four lines and stellar play in net from Carey Price (.940 Sv% and 1.79 GAAv).
However, since the Nov 13th the Montréal Canadiens have looked decidedly average, going 17-16-8; good for 20th in the league and many fans calling for GM Marc Bergevin to fire coach Michel Therrien before the window of opportunity with Price and Weber closes.
Montréal has most of the pieces to make a cup run; world class goaltending, solid defense that includes veteran Shea Weber and a good mix of youth and experience in the forwards, including Max Pacioretty and possibly the best signing of the off-season in Alexander Radulov. Unfortunately those pieces aren't in the right order and the style of play is not conducive to generating much needed offence. Motivation appears to be at a low and something needs to change soon to get the habs back on track. Likely the only major impact that will improve the Canadiens chances of being a cup contender this season is a coaching change.
Here's an insight into the numbers over that period, from Dec 13th up to and including the 4-0 loss to Colorado on Feb 7th...
The Good
Powerplay 22.0% (7th) - despite being the 15th ranked team in powerplay opportunities (118) the habs powerplay is still something to be positive about. Weber leads the way over this stretch with 12pts, followed by Radulov (11), Nathan Beaulieu (9) and Pacioretty (8), although Pacioretty has just 1 powerplay point in his last 15 games. Perhaps the key to the success on the powerplay is being able to comfortably gain the zone and get the puck back cleanly to Andrei Markov or Weber, something the habs have struggled with recently. Montréal ranks 5th in the league in offensive zone face-off wins, a platform which should give them a decent opportunity to get set up and play to their strengths.
Corsi 53.2% (3rd) - whilst this sounds impressive anyone watching recently may have noticed the habs are attempting relatively few shots per game, and they'd be right, 42 or less at even strength in five of their last six games. During those games the opposition has attempted more shots four times. Sadly these numbers do not reflect the quality of the shots attempted, a department the habs have been lacking in of late. Montréal's shooting percentage is just 14th in the league over this span at 8.9%. A good example of this is Brendan Gallagher, who ranks 14th in the league with a 57.9% corsi, but only a 2.8% shooting percentage.
Al Montoya - since hanging him out to dry in a 10-0 loss to Columbus on Nov 4th, the habs have rallied around their backup netminder. Montoya has a .920 save percentage and 2.19 goals against average since that game. The habs have just four remaining back-to-back nights including the final games of the regular season against Tampa Bay and Detroit. Regular starter Carey Price the subject of much criticism over the past months but the problem likely resides in motivation rather than diminishing of ability. Price is ranked 2nd in save percentage and 7th in goals average since the start of the 2015-16 season. The Capital's Braden Holtby leads both those categories in addition to wins (75).
The Bad
Times Shorthanded 131 (24th) - it's hard to maintain pressure when you've got a man in the box and a poorly timed penalty can change the momentum of a game. Case in point Andrew Shaw's offensive zone penalty at 16:46 of the 2nd period in the recent loss to Philadelphia, allowing the Flyers to equalise and turning the tide of the game. Although not the least disciplined player, Shaw's 9 minor penalties have perhaps being the most obvious due to unnecessary manor in which they have been taken. Surprisingly the two of the worst disciplined players are Radulov (14) and Pacioretty (12).
Penalty Kill 76.8% (23rd) - when you're a team that's often in the box the last thing you want is a below average penalty kill, especially against teams who move the puck well. Perhaps this is part due to the inability of Tomas Plekanec to consistently win defensive zone face-offs (37%), allowing the opposition to start with the puck in the offensive zone rather than have to bring it in. For comparison his counterpart Torrey Mitchell has won 60.3%.
Giveaways 413 (25th) - Perhaps one of the most telling stats on why Montréal struggles to maintain offensive zone pressure and why they are struggling to gain the offensive zone cleanly is the number of giveaways, giving the puck away on average over 10 times per game. Petry (46) ranks 6th in the league in this category. Five players have given the puck away more than 25 times during this span. Oddly nobody has given the puck away more than San Jose's Brent Burns (110) this season, 37 more than the next highest player, although his overall numbers look significantly better than Petry's.
The Average
Goals For/Goals Against both 106 (14th/17th) - Scoring has been an issue for some time now in Montréal and this span has been no different; the habs have scored 3 or more goals in just 16 of their last 41 games, winning 12 of them. In contrast the habs have given up 3 or more goals 22 times, winning just 5 of those games. The habs are 9-15 in 1 goal games and not only has a below average record when conceding first but is one of the worst teams in the league when trailing after the first period.
Powerplay Opportunities 118 (15th) - One of the key drivers for the lack of powerplay opportunities is the ability of other teams to shut down Montréal's speed in the neutral zone and the hab's lack of ability to hold on to the puck in the offensive zone. With the return of Galchenyuk and Markov making the habs have a potent powerplay threat they must find a way to force other teams to take more penalties and give their offense a boost.
Unbalanced Scoring - Amongst the forwards there is a marked drop-off in points from Pacioretty (32) and Radulov (28) to the next players; Paul Byron and Phillip Danualt (19), Plekanec (18) and Artturi Lekhonen (13). Shaw (13) and Galchenyuk (12) are the only other forwards with 10 or more points during this span. The second line configuration has been a bone of contention for some time amongst the Montréal faithful and the numbers suggest a shake up should be on the cards.
Summary
Montréal is playing average hockey and were it not for a strong start would be fighting to make the playoffs. They have had injuries to key players but one player does not make a team and it is the style of play that is more worrying.
They're neutral zone play both ways is lacking, due to poor fore-checking and lack of movement. They take too many penalties for a team with a below average penalty kill. On the flip side their powerplay is good but they do not get enough opportunities to shine and they struggle to gain a hold in the offensive zone long enough to give their powerplay stars the chance to do what they are best at. The overall quality of shooting and scoring attempts is poor and they give away far more quality scoring opportunities than they take.
The habs do not get good secondary scoring and if the opposition can shut down their top line they are unlikely to score enough to win games. If they can go ahead they have a good chance of winning but fail to take the opportunity to put games to bed early on and struggle to equalise when conceding first. This is in part due to the negative style of play employed by coach Michel Therrien and his inability to put together a threatening second line despite the speed of the players at his disposal, frequently doing too little too late in order to stem the tide of a game slipping away.
Goaltending is still a strong point but Price appears to be less animated of late, and less consistent than in previous seasons. Needless to say he is still world class and his numbers do not truly reflect the way he has played.
Keys to Success
In order to be successful Montréal must take less penalties, not only the obvious bad penalties in the offensive zone but controlling the speed teams move through the neutral zone to give their defense a better chance and not get caught flat-footed and forced to take penalties.
Formulating an effective second line, with speed and skill would give the habs more depth on scoring; centering Galchenyuk with Lekhonen or Byron on the left and either David Desharnais or Sven Andrighetto on the right. The return of Gallagher would give the habs a much needed boost in this area.
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